Fiscal Risk and Public Sector Balance Sheets: Conference review

A conference on Fiscal Risk and Public Sector Balance Sheets was held on July 6-7 at the University of Bonn as part of the ADEMU Project. The conference brought together theoretical and empirical research, focusing on the research that has been spurred by the European fiscal crisis on measurement and modeling of fiscal risk. The topics of focus included:

  • Indicators of fiscal risk
  • Macro and financial economics models of fiscal risk and risk indicators
  • Assessment of fiscal risk in the context of public sector balance sheets
  • Fiscal risk management, and economic policies addressing fiscal risk

The two day conference saw ten researchers present their work on this topic and the keynote address was led by Vitor Gaspar from the International Monetary Fund.

The conference ran as follows and all available presentations can be found below:

Day 1

“Fiscal Crises”
Eugene Verkade (IMF)

“Does Austerity Pay Off?”
Gernot Müller (University of Tübingen)

“Sovereign Risk and Fiscal (In)attention”
Huixin Bi (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

“Debt Limits and Sovereign Default in the Euro Area”
Niccolo Battistini (ECB)

“When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging”
Carlos Thomas (Bank of Spain)

“Explaining Costs of Sovereign Defaults”
Aitor Erce (ESM, Luxembourg)

“Austerity to Save the Banks?”
Florian Buck (German Ministry of Finance)

“Keynote Address”
Vitor Gaspar, IMF

Below is a full recording of the keynote address given by Vitor Gaspar (IMF):


Day 2

“The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes”
Carlos Mulas-Granados (IMF)

“Can Uncertainty Explain the Heterogeneous Output Effects of Fiscal Adjustments?”
Madina Karamysheva (NRU, High School of Economics, Moscow)

“Converging to a Comprehensive Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis”
George Kopits (Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington DC)

“Converging to a Comprehensive Risk-Adjusted Fiscal Sustainability Analysis”
Martin Larch, European Commission